Eleven 3D Printing Predictions For the Year 2011

This is a guest post by Joris Peels, the Community Manager of i.materialise, a 3D printing service for designers, inventors and consumers. They are part of Materialise, a company with over 20 years experience in 3D printing and the market leader in 3D printing services and software.

Making predictions is a sure fire path towards getting ridiculed. But, I’ll be brave and go right ahead and make 11 predictions for 3D printing in 2011.

Makerbot will sell more than 10,000 3D printers in 2011.
To put that in perspective, there are approximately 30,000 3D printers in the world today. Makerbot would have to scale to meet this kind of production but given their strong brand and loyal following it should, together with some prime time TV coverage, be possible.

Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.

Bre Pettis is the congenial Maker in Chief of Makerbot. Possibly he will be holding a Makerbot. And for all you Kevin Rose watchers out there, this will not be the beginning of the end.

A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.
An injection molded product does not count, even if it was prototyped using 3D printing. The revenue must come from the sales of the 3D printed products themselves. A label that designs many products will also not count since this has happened before. Several designers have revenues of hundreds of thousands of dollars selling 3D printed items ranging from chairs to jewelry currently. As many designers get more knowledgeable with the 3D printing process and media coverage increases a million dollar hit is only one good design away.

Both Stratasys and Objet will release $5000 desktop 3D printers at Euromold 2011.

$5,000 is the new $20,000. Most entry level desktop 3D printers by companies such as Stratasys & Objet cost around $20,000 now. The Makerbot and Bits From Bytes 3D printers are available for around $1000 in kits and $3000 assembled. 3D printing services are also expanding and disrupting the market for 3D printers. I’m guessing people will read The Innovators Dilemma and reluctantly rush towards offering 3D printers around the $5000 mark. The $5,000 price point is well established by the now defunct Desktop Factory and so would be an illogical but obvious price point for 3D printer manufacturers to work towards. Both Stratasys and Objet’s technology could be stripped down to make a $5000 3D printer.

Zcorp & EOS will be the only major 3D printer manufacturers not to offer a desktop 3D printer in 2011.
In two blog posts Zcorp’s Vice President of R&D expresses strong skepticism about the need for and usefulness of consumer 3D printing. This to me points to Zcorp focusing more on improving its existing technologies and in expanding its technology base by using the Envisontec Ultra technology and improving the materials and process of the Ultra machine. A likely path for Zcorp is making recyclable and biodegradable materials and in then later positioning themselves as the “green 3D printing” player.

EOS on the other hand has made no move whatsoever towards the desktop market. It seems content to make further advances in direct digital manufacturing and its product portfolio and advances indicate this. It would be difficult to make an affordable Selective Laser Sintering system at the moment and even though it could (with some advances and a huge reduction in the cost of lasers) be possible EOS would seem to have huge opportunities in capturing market share in the direct digital production market for medical and industrial manufacturing right now.

3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.

3D Systems has been playing the M&A game quite seriously over the past year acquiring Bits From Bytes and a string of 3D printing services worldwide. Their Marketing Manager is Cathy Lewis who used to be the CEO of consumer facing Desktop Factory. The combination of these assets shows a strong urge to become big in the consumer 3D printing market, and a 3D printing service aimed at consumers would make sense in that light.

At least five 3D printing startups aimed at consumers will launch during 2011.
With all the media & VC attention given to 3D printing many MBA-types will be pining over how they will make their fortune in the 3D printing business. Their thoughts are always towards barriers to entry, scalable etc. Also, web services are something they think they understand so they will come up with “3D printing on Facebook”, “its like i.materialise but for..”, 3D printing for the iPhone, etc.

Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.
Adobe understands the network effect and with its Reader software makes (somehow) millions by letting people publish and read documents. With more and more information being held in 3D formats “going 3D” would seem to be a logical step for Adobe. Reading, opening and editing 3D formats is a mess and ripe for consolidation. Autodesk’s stock performance recently has improved but still not reached the highs of the mid-2000’s. Executives have left and the company has experienced a lot of weakness due to its exposure to the AEC (architecture, engineering & construction) market. The company’s are giants in their respective markets and the tie up also somehow feels right.

Microsoft buys Dassault Systemes in 2011.
Dassault Systemes also seems to understand the network effect and its 3DVia software suite is a clear play to become the “Reader of 3D. “ The company is very strong in B2B engineering and 3D modeling software with Solidworks and Catia. It is also a giant in PLM. And product lifecycle management software would seem to be the way in which companies can manage the creation of intellectual property. It’s an illogical but prestigious asset to its defense contractor shareholders and its stock price has surged over the past years due to canny take overs and growth. This would not come cheap, but Microsoft with all its “SAP money” could make the acquisition and become a giant in 3D creation and engineering. Dassault would be a much more logical fit for Microsoft than the Google inspired acquisitions it has made over these past years. French protectionism and complex shareholdings would complicate matters however.

3D modeling software vendors will start to offer “light 3D printing” versions of their products

Both Solidworks and Rhino have experienced immense market growth due to inexpensive Student versions of their software driving demand for later adoption by companies and freelancers. Blender has become a huge by being a vibrant community and free. SketchUp has obtained many paid users because of its free to use versions. But, full versions of many 3D modeling packages cost anywhere from several hundred to several thousand dollars. There is a huge gap between the free alternatives and the fully paid versions while the “seeding strategy” seems to work well for the industry. An expected influx into 3D modeling by enthusiasts and broader adoption of 3D modeling software should drive growth. However these people are likely to turn to free or inexpensive versions of easy to learn packages first. And despite the industry’s best efforts, no package is easy at the moment. A possible solution would be to offer stripped down inexpensive 3D printing specific light versions of popular 3D modeling applications. These would be easier to master and cheaper to buy.

3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011

Design label .MGX has been winning a host of awards for its 3D printed work lately. Furthermore its works have been added to the permanent collection of the MOMA and the Smithsonian National Design Museum. Objet won a Red Dot for its Connex 3D printer in 2008 and designer Janne Kyttanen won a Red Dot back in 2005 for his LILY.MGX lamp. With many new designers active in the field producing attractive and groundbreaking work two Red Dots might be achievable.

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O Canada! World’s Most Web Connected Land

According to a recent comScore report, Canada has beaten out the US, the UK, France, and everyone else in the world in various metrics relating to broadband and internet use. While the conspicuous absence of the likes of Sweden, a perennial leader in these categories, fills me with suspicion, the numbers are still fun, and slightly surprising.

One statistic calculated to both please and terrify is that, by comScore’s measurements, just over half the population of Canada is on Facebook. That amounts to about 16 million people — a drop in the bucket with Facebook’s user base — but it’s the proportion that matters. US usage is around 40% by some estimates, which is of course significant, but it’s fun that Canada has passed us up in this race. I’m guessing it has something to do with the weather up there.

The comScore report (not actually provided, so this information is second-hand) also makes mention of some other specific services; internet-enabled TV, in the form of Netflix Streaming, Google TV, and so on, is far less prevalent there. Reuters attributes this to regulation debates, but I think that international licensing agreements are decades behind where they should be. This causes TV, movies, music, even ostensibly public-domain works to be inaccessible in some countries. Canada seems to be passed up whenever I hear about expansions by media distribution companies to to new markets.

Another interesting statistic, and one that strikes me as being rather anachronistic, is that Canadians spend an average of 42 hours per month on the internet. What exactly does “on the internet” mean in this case? I am on the internet upwards of 700 hours per month, depending on the number of days, since I have an always-connected smartphone. The internet is no longer accessed in terms of hours; we don’t log in and log out, or at least very few of us do any more.

While these metrics are certainly fun to think about, there are dozens more that are less conscientiously tracked, and less impressive-sounding. Uptake of next-generation services like cross-platform synchronization of files and calendars would be a good indicator, and smartphone use statistics are also highly relevant. Mapping information use is becoming an incredibly complicated field, and while Canada deserves a measure of glory for winning this little round-up, that glory will succumb quickly to a little scrutiny.

And for good measure:

And because some people found the above image offensive, which was placed there as a very serious commentary on international politics and culture, and not at all a joke, it seems only fair that I should add a similarly serious contribution from the Canadian side (from the great Kate Beaton):

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Via Motors E-REV hybrid trucks power your commute and the job site too (video)

Hybrid cars have officially jumped the shark, boring drivers from coast to coast as they smugly hypermile wherever they're going. Meanwhile, those with big trucks have been relatively out of luck, having to stop frequently for gas -- and to scrape the remains of those little hybrids out of their fender wells. That's changing soon, with Via Motors taking its rebranded Chevy trucks (dig that flying V on the grille) and offering them to fleets in 2011, with sales to individuals coming two years later (you can get in line now for $1,000 down). Big companies like, apparently, PG&E will be able to roll in these so-called E-REV trucks that offer either 20 or 40 miles of electric range, augmented by an onboard generator. Yes, it's a series hybrid layout similar in theory to the Volt, with the internal combustion engine charging the batteries which, in turn, send juice to the 268hp motor. Interestingly, though, that generator can power other things as well, providing 120 or 240V to tools, lights, maybe even hot tubs if you're a super cool contractor. No word on anticipated vehicle cost nor efficiency, but we're not expecting miracles on either front.

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Clear iSpot discontinued already

By Chris Ziegler posted Dec 30th 2010 5:13PM Well, that certainly didn't last very long, did it? Looks like Clear is already sending its unusual iSpot product to the great WiMAX network in the sky less than five months after its introduction. As a refresher, the iSpot's claim to fame is that it was designed to work only with iPhones, iPod touches, and iPads -- and in exchange for the crazy restriction, Clear would charge you less than $100 for the hotspot itself and just $25 a month for unlimited 4G access capped at 6Mbps down. Of course, it's easy to understand why Clear would want to forget the iSpot ever existed: its MAC address filtering was easily defeated and plagued with reports that even approved devices were being denied access, suggesting that the concept probably wasn't a solid one in the first place. For what it's worth, Clear retail stores are still selling through remaining stock if you're interested -- and the company will maintain a supply of units for warranty replacements -- but otherwise, you're out of luck.

[Thanks, rand]

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HOW TO: Explain Twitter to Your Parents

Still struggling to explain the utility of Twitter to your family back home? (I know I am.) Well, we’re all in luck. The MashableMashable staff stumbled across a guide titled “Mom, This Is How Twitter Works,” a lovely, easy-to-swallow breakdown of the microblogging site.

Jessica Hische — who you might know as the creator of Daily Drop Cap — made the informal Twitter guide. It outlines what’s what, who’s who, who sees what and everything in between in the Twitterverse.

“I am not an employee of Twitter, just an avid (understatement) user of the service that wanted to lend a hand to Twitter n00bs,” Hische says.

Whether you’re an old hand at crafting 140-character messages or you know zilch about tweeting, you’ll probably learn something from Hische’s explanation. At the very least, it will help you explain what TwitterTwitter is all about to those less familiar with it, because, after all, only 6% of the entire adult U.S. population uses Twitter.

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So Much For FREE!: Apple Will Sell $2B in Apps in 2011

I’ve often wondered if the early Web pioneers had it all to do over again if Web companies would have put less of an emphasis on free.

People have been conditioned against paying for services or content on the Web, and the Web elite only have each other to blame. For all the talk of Web companies getting users first and “figuring out” how to make money later, the only two jaw-droppingly, multi-billion-dollar, innovative new ways to advertise online have been Google’s paid search ads and Groupon’s solution to unlocking local ad dollars on a mass scale. Those who win big–like Google– just perpetuate the cult of free content and services as a way of spoiling would be competitors. Witness a big disconnect between popularity and money. Exhibit A: Yahoo.

As a result, Netflix and Match.com are two of the only companies to have figured out ways to build large, lucrative subscription businesses online. Meanwhile, LinkedIn is one of the only Web 2.0 companies that has created a huge business with a freemium business model.

But on the mobile Web it’s a do-over, and it’s a totally different playbook from FREE! People are conditioned to pay for stuff over phones in a way they aren’t online, and they’re not flinching. According to Citibank’s US Internet Stock 2011 Playbook released today, Apple will generated as much as $2 billion in gross app revenue in 2011. For perspective, that’s about the same size as Citibank’s estimate for the entire online video advertising market next year, nevermind way more people watch YouTube than have an iPhone and it’s been in the cultural zeitgeist longer.

The report also cites Gartner’s estimates that the total app market was around $4 billion in 2010 and should grow to a whopping $27 billion by 2013. The biggest driver is smart phone penetration, the impact of which Citibank compares to the spread of broadband on the computer-based Internet in the early 2000s. Globally, smart phone unit sales grew 53% in 2010, and Citibank expects it to grow 29% in 2011 and stay in the mid-20% growth range through 2013.

Several years ago, it was controversial to say that a fledgling product called Android — not the hyped up purchase of YouTube– would be Google’s best bet at another hit on the scale of paid search. Android is already making $1 billion in revenues with an indirect monetization strategy, and Citibank expects that could double next year– not only eclipsing YouTube but the entire online video category. Now calling Android Google’s future is almost a cliche. Good thing Google hedged its bets.

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